One Nation's immigration policy is one number. Its immigration page promises to cut immigration by over 570,000 people by "capping visas at 130,000 per year".
Ask what the 130,000 covers and you get three different answers. All three come from One Nation.
The three answers
The media release of 11 February 2025 says 130,000 visas a year, "a cut of 570,000 from current levels under Labor".
On 26 August 2025 it became a target of 130,000 to 160,000 people a year. That counts people rather than visas, and it is a range rather than a cap.
On 10 December 2025 it became a cap on net migration of 130,000, which the post calls roughly net-neutral. Net-neutral means zero.
Then in March 2026 it changed again. Abul Rizvi, a deputy secretary of the Immigration department for over a decade, reported Hanson had revised it to 130,000 arrivals a year, giving net migration of minus 100,000.
A net cap of 130,000 and an arrivals cap of 130,000 are about 250,000 people apart every year.
The 570,000 does not add up
Here are the official figures.
The Bureau of Statistics recorded 568,000 people arriving in 2024-25 and 263,000 leaving. Net migration: 306,000.
Cap arrivals at 130,000 and you have cut 438,000. Not 570,000.
The only way to get to 570,000 is to count the entire arrivals figure as the saving. That would mean letting nobody in at all.
The December version fails the same test. Cap arrivals at 130,000, subtract the 263,000 who leave, and you get minus 133,000. That is not net-neutral either.
The version that makes sense
Australia issues about eight million visas a year, so Rizvi rules out the reading that the 130,000 covers every visa. Visitor visas alone exceed it. That leaves the permanent program.
Labor's permanent migration program is set at 185,000 places for 2026-27. Of those, 132,240 are skilled workers and 52,460 are family.
One Nation's 130,000 is within about 2,000 places of Labor's skilled intake.
Read it that way and the policy is this: keep the skilled workers Labor already brings in, and cut the family program. The family program is how people already living here bring in a partner, a child or a parent. It is a cut of 55,000, not 570,000.
One Nation has never described its policy in those terms, and has not said this is what it means.
There is also a legal problem. Rizvi says the law stops government capping visas for the partners and children of Australian citizens and permanent residents. Home Affairs sets aside 41,500 partner places and 3,500 child places for 2026-27. That is over a third of a 130,000 cap gone before anything else.
What is definitely real
Plenty of the policy is specific and would happen as written.
Deport 75,000 people the party says are here illegally: overstayers, illegal workers and unlawful non-residents. Double the wait for citizenship and welfare from four years to eight. Bring back Temporary Protection Visas. Cut back tribunal appeals. Refuse entry to people from countries the party says foster extremist ideologies. Pull Australia out of the UN Refugee Convention.
Rizvi notes that deporting visa holders who break the law is mostly what already happens under section 501 of the Migration Act.
Hanson did not mention it
Hanson gave her first National Press Club address on 17 June 2026. The published speech has no 130,000 cap in it. No net migration target either. The only time 130,000 appears is a reference to Australians sleeping rough.
Social media posts about the speech, including one from 7News, said she had announced a cut to 130,000. It is not in the transcript.
One more number
Pollster Kos Samaras of RedBridge told SBS in June that 30 per cent of One Nation voters rate immigration a priority issue.
The point
Wanting lower immigration is a fair position. Plenty of Australians hold it, and they are entitled to vote for it.
The problem is narrower than that. If you vote One Nation because of the 130,000, you cannot currently find out what you voted for. The party's own site gives it three meanings. The headline saving does not follow from any of them. The one version that works is one the party has never claimed. And the leader left it out of her biggest speech of the year.
Every claim here links to the document it came from. Read them and decide for yourself.